Service Plays Tuesday 4/27/10

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<!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> New Addition to Service Play Forum..Specifically for posting additional topics.

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

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I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-6, 188)

The Heat avoided the embarrassment of getting swept out of the playoffs on their home court but that’s only because Dwyane Wade played one of the best games of his life.

It’s the same old story for Miami: D-Wade doing a whole lot and every other Heat player doing a whole lot of nothing.

Miami’s starting center, former All-Star Jermaine O’Neal, is averaging 3.5 points and 6.0 rebounds in the series' first four games. And Michael Beasley, who’s supposed to be the second scoring option, hasn’t netted more than 16 points through the first four games.

Boston wasn’t exactly an ATS killer at home this season (12-28-1) but you gotta like its chances of putting the Heat out of their misery on Tuesday.

Pick: Boston


San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (-5, 193)

Looks like Mavs owner Mark Cuban wasn’t exaggerating when he said his team hated the Spurs. The disdain between these two sides was easily noticeable throughout Game 4 in San Antonio.

The Mavs’ cold spell in the third quarter sealed their fate. San Antonio stole the game despite getting just 31 points from its star trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

"If Duncan goes 1-for-9 and Ginobili goes 4-for-16, you've got to win that game," Mavs forward Dirk Nowitzki told ESPN after the game.

It was San Antonio’s supporting cast that came to the rescue even though Gregg Popovich essentially used just a seven-man rotation.

“It's a team game,” guard George Hill, who led the Spurs in scoring with 29 points, told the San Antonio Express-News. “You can't just rely on the Big Three. It's going to take all 15 of us.”

The Mavs aren’t stupid. They know the math involved when one side goes down 3-1 in a best of seven series in the NBA. Just eight out of 189 teams have successfully come back to take the series.

But Dallas’ hate for San Antonio will fuel one more strong performance. The Mavs aren’t going to go quietly into the night, not against their in-state rivals.

Pick: Dallas
 
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Game of the day: Thunder at Lakers

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (-6, 194.5)

Game 5 of the Western Conference playoff series between the Lakers and the Thunder tips off at the Staples Center in Los Angeles Tuesday with the series deadlocked 2-2.

How they got here

Oklahoma City evened the series with Los Angeles at 2-2 with a resounding 110-89 victory Saturday night. As a result, the 21-point win turned its first-round series with the defending champs into a best-of-three.

"Well that was about as good as a game of basketball we could play at both ends of the floor," head coach Scott Brooks said. "I thought we set the tone defensively. We really made them miss some shots. Offensively, we took care of the basketball.”

Surprisingly, OKC won the game despite shooting only 41 percent. The Thunder won the rebounding battle 50-43, but, more important, the team played with intensity from start to finish.

Kobe Bryant, who's nursing a broken right index finger and a sore knee, scored just 12 points for the Lakers, while none of his teammates managed more than 13.

"A lot of people didn't expect us to be here," All-Star forward Kevin Durant said. "Once we got here, I know people were saying we were going to be swept. We knew what we were capable of.

“We're playing every day hard and practice every day hard, and with those attributes we can go far as a team."

Take a seat

One thing is for sure: Lakers coach Phil Jackson needs to do a better job of making adjustments.

The Lakers again failed to make Saturday’s contest a half-court game and instead allowed the Thunder to do damage in transition, with a 24-2 edge in fast break points.

Oklahoma City also continued its baffling control of the boards - despite the presence of 7-footers Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum inside for Los Angeles - and shot 20 more free throws.

Moreover, the Thunder needed only 22 points from Kevin Durant to secure the blowout victory. Durant scored nine of his points at the foul line, where the Thunder outscored the Lakers, 42-17.

As a result of the lopsided affair, Bryant and his starting teammates watched most of the final stanza from the bench. But Bryant sees no reason to panic after a surprising surge by the youngest team in the NBA, with most of Oklahoma City's players making their first postseason appearance.

"It's not rocket science," said Bryant, limited to 12 points in the 110-89 loss in Game 4. "We had a tough battle, we've got adjustments to make and we have a team that's playing extremely well right now that we have to deal with.

"It's not something where we lose swagger. They defended their home court. Now, it's our turn. Simple as that."

Century village

It’s not often the Lakers lose a playoff game and allow 100 or more points in the same contest, but that's been the case in each of their last two games. In fact, it’s happened 72 times since 1991, with L.A. bouncing back off the mat to win 47 times the following game, going 40-30-2 ATS in the process.

Better yet, when they are of a loss of 14 or more points in these affairs, they are 12-5 ATS, including 4-0 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Money matters

The Lakers are 10-6 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in the playoffs off back-to-back losses, including 1-7 ATS as a favorite of six or more points.

L.A. was 5-1 SU and ATS in games off back-to-back defeats this season, losing three games in a row only once.

Oklahoma City is 7-11 ATS in games off back-top-back SU and ATS wins this season, including 3-7 ATS when playing off two wins exact
 
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What bettors need to know: Red Wings at Coyotes

Detroit Red Wings at Phoenix Coyotes (+100, 5)

Series tied 3-3.

Home away from home

Home ice hasn’t meant much in this first-round playoff series. The Coyotes, who finished fourth in the Western Conference, will host Game 7 Tuesday but may have wanted to see this showdown take place in enemy territory.

Phoenix and Detroit are 1-2 at home in this series with the Red Wings outscoring the Coyotes 13-8 inside Jobing.com Arena. The last time these teams played in Phoenix, Detroit rolled to a 4-1 victory, scoring three goals in the third period last Friday.

“It’s the fourth and fifth place teams so it’s (supposed to be tight),” Red Wings coach Mike Babcock told reporters. “They are a real good team, but we like to think we are a better team.

“The great thing about the seventh game is we will find the answer.”

I’ve got the power

The Coyotes forced Game 7 with a 5-2 win in Detroit Sunday night. Three of Phoenix’s goals came on the power play, improving the team to 21.4 percent efficiency (6-for-28) with the man advantage.

Taylor Pyatt, Radim Vrbata and former Red Wings player Mathieu Schneider all found the back of the net on the power play, with two of those goals coming in a busy second period in which Phoenix scored three goals while Detroit added one.

"It's one game," Schneider told the media about the team’s special teams. "I don't want to say we solved it, but it worked for us, and we want to keep doing the same thing. The fundamentals were there on the power play, when you look at the way we moved it.

"We had some real good puck movement, got some good shots. Robert Lang does a good job calming things down on the half-wall, just a big body, great reads, but everyone did a really good job."

The Coyotes also scored a shorthanded goal in the first period when Lauri Korpikoski gobbled up a turnover in the neutral zone and went in to beat Red Wings goaltender Jimmy Howard five hole to open the scoring just over four minutes into the game.

Seventh heaven?

When weighing both teams for Tuesday’s sudden-death showdown, hockey bettors have to give the edge to Detroit.

The playoff-savvy franchise has been in plenty of Game 7s, however, the last time they played in one in the first round of the postseason, they lost to the San Jose Sharks back in 2004. Red Wings fans have to go back to 1964 for the last time they won a first-round Game 7 on the road, defeating the Chicago Blackhawks.

According to the Detroit Free Press, Detroit is 12-8 all-time in Game 7 scenarios, including losing Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final to the Pittsburgh Penguins at home last season.

Doan and out

Despite being a late scratch from Sunday’s Game 6, Coyotes captain Shane Doan gave the team an emotional lift with his presence in the dressing room. Doan spoke to the team in between periods, helping guide them to a victory.

"Just a tremendous leader, one of the best leaders I've been fortunate enough to play with," Schneider told the Arizona Republic. "I played with a lot of great leaders; he's another great captain in this league."

Doan hasn’t played since Game 3 after suffering an upper-body injury. He had a goal and an assist in Game 2 of this series. During the regular season, Doan had 55 points and played all 82 games.

His status for Tuesday’s is currently listed as questionable.

Trends

- The over/under for this series is 3-1-2 with Game 6 playing over the 5-goal total.

- Red Wings are 16-5-3 in the last 24 meetings in Phoenix.

- Coyotes are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals (-165, 7.5)

It has to be tough for a pitcher to get motivated for a start when he is going to be demoted shortly after the game.

That’s the situation Ian Snell faces Tuesday as he is expected to be sent to the bullpen to make room in the starting rotation for the return of Cliff Lee on Friday.

While Mariners manager Don Wakamatsu has yet to confirm the decision, the Seattle Times reported that Snell’s struggles in three starts (eight earned runs and 17 hits in 14.0 innings) makes him the overwhelming candidate to join the pen.

In 10.1 career innings versus Kansas City, Snell has surrendered 10 hits and six earned runs. While he won’t take the mound looking to lose the game, Snell might not get up for this one knowing he will be a reliever by the end of the week.

Even though Zack Greinke has struggled somewhat this season, this is a decent price for the reigning AL Cy Young award winner.

Pick: Royals


Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros (-115, 9)

After the Cubs moved Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen, Cincinnati manager Dusty Baker began fielding questions about a similar scenario regarding the “ace” of his staff.

Aaron Harang is off to a horrendous start in 2010. The righty is 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA this season and has given up at least six earned runs in his last two starts.

“We're talking about it but this guy is getting paid handsomely to be a starter,” Baker said of the possibility of moving Harang to the bullpen. “At this point, who do you have to take his place? And we need him to win. It's four starts. If it was 14 starts, it'd be a different thing.”

But going back to last season, Harang is 1-13 with a 5.41 ERA in his past 20 starts.

Doing his own version of playing hero in the state of Texas, Bud Norris not Chuck Norris, has had a respectable sophomore season thus far. Norris hasn’t given up more than three earned runs in three starts and Houston has come away victorious in each of his last two starts.

Expect the suddenly surging ‘Stros to make it four in a row Tuesday night.

Pick: Astros
 
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MLB WRITE-UP


Tuesday, April 27

Hot pitchers
-- JSantana is 1-0, 0.68 in his last two starts. Dodgers are 3-0 in Kuroda starts, scoring 27 runs.
-- Garland is 1-0, 3.00 in his last two starts.
-- Brewers are 3-1 when Wolf starts, scoring 35 runs.
-- LHernandez is 2-1, 0.75 in three starts for Washington.
-- Carpenter is 1-0, 2.57 in his last two starts.
-- Jimenez is 4-0, 0.95 so far this season. EJackson is 1-0, 3.43 in his last three starts.

-- Liriano is 2-0, 1.29 in three starts this season.
-- Hughes is 2-0, 2.19 in two starts this season.
-- Sheets has a 1.50 RA in his last two starts. Davis is 1-0, 0.82 in his last couple starts.
-- Wilson is 1-1, 2.29 in his first three starts.
-- Talbot is 2-0, 1.80 in his last two starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Perez is 0-3, 4.24 in three starts this season. Haeger is 0-1, 11.00 in two starts this year.
-- ASanchez has 5.30 RA in three starts this season.
-- Cubs are 0-3 when Gorzelanny starts (0-2, 4.20).
-- Lowe has a 6.05 RA in four starts this season.
-- Burres is 13-21, 6.19 in 42 big league starts; he gave up six runs in four IP in his only start this season. .
-- Cincinnati is 0-4 in Harang starts (0-3, 9.14). Norris is 1-1, 5.68 in his three starts this season.
-- Moyer has a 6.00 RA in three starts this season. Wellemeyer is 0-3, 8.16 in three starts this season.

-- Buchholz is 1-2, 5.40 in three starts this season, but does have 17 Ks in his last 11.2 IP. Marcum is 0-1, 4.00 in four starts this season.
-- Millwood is 0-3, 4.72 in four starts this season.
-- Verlander has 6.95 RA in four starts this season.
-- Greinke is 0-2, 4.38 in four starts this season. Snell is 0-2, 9.00 in his last two starts.
-- Buehrle has 7.71 RA in his last three starts.
-- Saunders is 1-3, 6.65 in four starts this season.

Totals
-- Seven of last ten Dodger road games went over the total.
-- Seven of eight Florida home games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Cincinnati games.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four games at Wrigley Field.
-- Four of last five games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Arizona games went over the total.
-- Last eight Giant games stayed under the total.

-- Six of last eight Boston games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-0-1 in last five Detroit games.
-- Over is 8-4 in Bronx Bomber road games.
-- Four of last five Oakland road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five White Sox games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Seattle games.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in Cleveland road games.

Hot teams
-- Mets won six of their last seven games.
-- Marlins won five of last seven home games. Padres won eight of their last ten games, but lost last two.
-- Astros won seven of their last nine games.
-- Cubs won last four games, scoring 29 runs. Washington is 7-5 in its last twelve games.
-- Cardinals won five of seven home games.
-- Brewers won six of their last eight games.
-- Arizona won three of its last four games. Colorado is 6-2 in the game following its last eight losses.
-- Giants won three of their last four games.

-- Red Sox won five of their last seven games.
-- Orioles are 3-16 this season, 0-6 at home.
-- Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 13 games. Oakland won three of its last four games.
-- White Sox won last three games, all in their last at-bat.
-- Twins won seven of their last nine road games. Tigers won four of their last six games overall.
-- Royals won last two games, allowing four runs.
-- Angels won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Dodgers lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Cincinnati lost its last five road games.
-- Braves lost last six games, scoring total of nine runs.
-- Pirates were outscored 72-12 in losing their last seven games.
-- Phillies lost three of their last four games.

-- Blue Jays lost four of their last five games.
-- Bronx Bombers lost three of their last four games.
-- Rangers lost eight of their last 11 games.
-- Mariners lost their last four games, scoring seven runs in last three.
-- Indians lost eight of their last ten road games.
 
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NBA WRITE-UP


Tuesday, April 27

Cavaliers have series wins by 13-10-23 points; they took 35 treys in the only Chicago win (23-20-25 in wins) so important to get ball inside and not settle for perimeter shots, with chance to end series and keep Lebron fresh for next series. Cavaliers have 35 blocked shots in series, to 12 for the Bulls. Last three games went over total. Chicago Gs were 12-33 last game, their bench was 7-25.

Home team is 4-0 in Laker-Thunder series; Harden scored 33 points in his two home games, after going scoreless in two games at Staples. LA won its two home games by 8-3 points. holding OC to 79-92 points. In last two games, Thunder scored 101-110 points. Oklahoma City still is yet to shoot higher than 41.2% from floor in any game, but they got to foul line 82 times in two home games, compared to 40 for the Lakers.

Spurs won two games at home by combined margin of seven points; in losing last three games, Dallas scored 88-90-89 points, after scoring 100 in only series win. Spurs outscored Dallas 29-11 in third quarter of last game, after Mavs led 48-37 at half. San Antonio's FT attempts went up in each game: 14-22-26-28. Nowitzki only took 10 shots in 43:13 last game; Dallas needs lot more than 17 points, four assists from him.
 
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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Hawks (-1-1/2) Monday night.

Tuesday: Cavaliers. Deficit: 360 sirignanos.
 
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DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 841-361 (.700)
ATS: 644-594 (.520)
ATS Vary Units: 1525-1426 (.517)
Over/Under: 612-634 (.491)
Over/Under Vary Units: 804-831 (.492)

Eastern Conference Playoffs, 1st Round
Game 5, best-of-7 series
CLEVELAND 105, Chicago 95
BOSTON 95, Miami 91
Western Conference Playoffs, 1st Round
Game 5, best-of-7 series
L.A. LAKERS 101, Oklahoma City 98
DALLAS 100, San Antonio 98
 
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DCI NHL

Season: 434-293 (.597)

Western Conference Playoffs, 1st Round
Game 7, best-of-7 series
Detroit vs. PHOENIX: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
 
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SPORTS ADVISORS

TUESDAY, APRIL 27

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Miami (1-3 SU and ATS) at Boston (3-1 SU and ATS)

The Celtics get their second chance to finish off this first-round best-of-7 series when they return home to TD Garden to meet the Heat in Game 5. The desperate Heat finally cracked the playoff win column in a back-and-forth, 101-92 Game 4 victory Sunday as a 1½-point home favorite. Miami jumped out to a 13-point lead after the first quarter, got outscored by 19 in the middle two frames, then rallied with 30 in the fourth quarter while holding the Celts to 15. The Heat snapped an eight-game SU losing streak to Boston. Dwyane Wade went off for 46 points, going 16 of 24 from the floor, including 5 of 7 from 3-point range. In fact, the Heat shot better from long distance (10 of 18, 55.6 percent) than they did overall (38 of 76, 50 percent). Boston shot a respectable 49.3 percent (34 of 69) on Sunday, but went just 8 of 21 from beyond the arc (38.1 percent) and was just 16 of 27 at the free-throw line (59.3 percent). None of the Big Three of Kevin Garnett (18 points), Paul Pierce (16) and Ray Allen (15) could even reach 20 points, and the Celtics also got outrebounded 43-35. Rajon Rondo led Boston with 23 points and nine assists. Miami entered the postseason having won eight in a row on the road, then lost Games 1 and 2 SU and ATS at Boston. The Heat are now 23-20 SU (24-19 ATS) on the highway this season, narrowly outscoring opponents 95.3-95.2, while shooting 45.7 percent and allowing 43.6 percent. Boston is 26-17 SU at home, but despite cashing in the first two contests of this series, the Celtics remain a meager 18-28-1 ATS in Beantown, where they average 100.1 ppg (48.8 percent shooting) and give up 96.0 (45.7 percent). Boston has now taken eight of the last nine (6-3 ATS) against Miami and 14 of the last 16 (11-5 ATS). The chalk has cashed in 12 of the last 15 clashes, and the SU winner is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head battles. In addition, the SU winner has covered in Miami’s last 11 postseason affairs and is 14-3-1 ATS in Boston’s last 18 playoff games. The Heat are on a handful of ATS slides, including 3-6 overall, 4-10-1 in opening-round playoff games (2-6 last eight), 0-4 as a playoff pup and 1-4 after a SU win. However, they’ve cashed in seven of their last 10 roadies and are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a day off and 4-0 ATS in their last four as a pup of five to 10½ points. The Celts are on ATS runs of 5-1 in first-round games, 4-1 as a playoff chalk, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS setback and 5-2 against winning teams, but they remain in ATS ruts of 8-19-1 at the Garden and 7-18-2 after a day off. Miami is on “over” strings of 7-2 overall, 8-2 against winning teams and 4-1 after a day off, but the Heat also carry “under” trends of 12-5-2 on the road and 9-3-1 as a road pup. Boston holds “over” streaks of 10-3 overall, 6-1 at home, 7-1 in first-round playoff games, 7-2 against winning teams, 13-3 after a non-cover and 35-16 when coming off a SU loss. Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in eight of the last 10 meetings between these rivals, including the last three in this series and five of the last six dating to regular-season play. The over is also 4-1 in the last five Heat-Celtics games in Beantown.


ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


Chicago (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at Cleveland (3-1, 2-2 ATS)

The Cavaliers look to close out the Central Division rival Bulls and move into the second round for the fifth straight year when they host this Game 5 clash at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland bounced back from its Game 3 loss by pounding Chicago 121-98 as a 5½-point road chalk in Game 4 on Sunday. LeBron James spun a triple-double of 37 points, 12 rebounds (all defensive) and 11 assists, hitting 6 of 9 from 3-point range and 11 of 17 overall (64.7 percent). Antawn Jamison added 24 points for the Cavs, who shot a stout 53.2 percent (42 of 79), making 12 of 25 from long range (48 percent). Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose each had 21 points for Chicago, with Noah adding a whopping 20 rebounds, but the Bulls shot a paltry 37.4 percent (34 of 91), including 33.3 percent from beyond the arc (4 of 12). Vinny Del Negro’s troops were down 23 after three quarters before finally playing the Cavs even in the meaningless fourth frame. The Bulls are 17-26 SU on the road (23-20 ATS), getting outscored 101.0-96.7 and outshot 45.6 percent to 45.0 percent, but they’ve gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 roadies (1-1 ATS in Cleveland in this series). Meanwhile, the Cavs are 37-6 SU at home this year, but have gone just 17-26 ATS, outscoring visitors by an average of about six ppg (103.6-98.0) and holding a 48.3 percent to 45.4 percent shooting edge. The underdog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine contests in this rivalry, and the home squad is on a 20-10 ATS roll, with Cleveland going 11-4 ATS in the last 15 contests at the Q. In addition, the SU winner is 30-3 ATS in the last 33 head-to-head clashes between these two. Despite Sunday’s blowout loss, the Bulls are on a bundle of ATS surges, including 14-7 overall, 19-9-1 against Central Division rivals, 9-1 after a SU loss, 7-3 as an underdog, 7-3 as a playoff ‘dog and 5-1 as a road pup. However, they are still 5-10 ATS in their last 15 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 4-10 overall (2-5 last seven), 2-6 at home, 3-8 as a favorite, 1-6 after a SU win and 2-6 after a day off, but they remain on playoff ATS rolls of 14-5 in first-round play (7-2 last nine) and 17-6-1 as a chalk. Chicago is on “over” stretches of 19-7-1 in first-round playoff games (7-1 last eight), 5-1 as a ‘dog and 10-1 as a playoff pup, and the over is on runs for Cleveland of 7-3 overall, 7-1 as a playoff chalk, 5-0 when laying 11 points or more and 4-0 after either a SU or an ATS win.
Finally, four of the last five meetings in this rivalry have cleared the posted price, including three in a row in this playoff series, after Game 1 stayed low.


ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER


WESTERN CONFERENCE

San Antonio (3-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-3 SU and ATS)

The seventh-seeded Spurs aim to complete a first-round upset when they travel to the American Airlines Center for Game 5 against the second-seeded Mavericks. San Antonio erased a 48-37 halftime deficit by outscoring Dallas 29-11 in the third quarter of Game 4 Sunday, then held on for a 92-89 victory to get the push as a three-point home chalk and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. George Hill was the surprise star, racking up a game-high 29 points, including a 5-for-6 effort on 3-pointers. The Spurs, who dropped Game 1 in Dallas, won their third in a row despite a woeful four-point outing from Tim Duncan, who went 1-for-9 from the floor, but did contribute 11 rebounds. Dallas didn’t get a single player past 17 points, with Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler each reaching that mark, and Nowitzki adding 11 boards. The Mavericks got outshot 45.3 percent to 41.6 percent. The Spurs are 30-13 SU (21-22 ATS) on the highway this year, outscoring foes by about a bucket per game (97.3-95.4), while shooting 45.6 percent and allowing 44.3 percent. The Mavs stand at 29-14 SU at home, but are a paltry 12-30-1 ATS, averaging 101.5 ppg (45.9 percent) and giving up 99.5 ppg (46.2 percent). This series could end up being a reversal of last year’s first-round clash, which Dallas won in five games (4-1 ATS). San Antonio’s SU and ATS victories in the last three contests halted a 4-0 SU and ATS run by Dallas in this rivalry. The Mavs are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, the host is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 matchups, and Dallas is still on a 6-1 ATS run in its last seven home starts against Gregg Popovich’s troops (the lone exception coming in Game 2 of this series). In addition, the SU winner is on a 16-1-1 ATS tear when these squads hook up. The Spurs are in a 1-5 ATS slide as a playoff pup, but are otherwise on pointspread upswings of 20-8-1 overall, 8-2-1 after a day off, 14-5-1 in the West and 8-3-1 against winning teams. The Mavericks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall, and they are on further pointspread upticks of 6-2-1 after a day off and 5-1 laying points, but they are just 8-29-1 ATS in their last 38 home games and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a playoff chalk. San Antonio is on “under” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 against winning teams, 7-1-1 getting points, 12-3-2 as a road pup and 8-3 coming off a SU win. Likewise, Dallas is on a boatload of “under” sprees, including 11-4-1 overall (4-0-1 last five, all against the Spurs), 5-0-1 inside the Southwest Division, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 following a day off. Finally, the under is 6-1-1 in this year’s eight clashes in this rivalry, with the last three games of this playoff series staying below the total after a push in Game 1.


ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Oklahoma City (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)

After dominating Games 3 and 4 to draw even in this best-of-7 series, the young Thunder hope to maintain their momentum when they return to the Staples Center for Game 5 against the defending NBA champion Lakers. Oklahoma City rallied for a 101-96 victory on Thursday as a 3½-point home favorite and then delivered a 110-89 beating on Saturday, easily cashing as a one-point chalk. The Thunder held Kobe Bryant to just 12 points and outrebounded the Lakers 50-43 in Sunday’s win. Regular-season scoring champ Kevin Durant went 6-for-12 for 22 points and guard Russell Westbrook had 18 points, eight boards and six assists. Oklahoma City is 23-20 (27-16 ATS) on the highway this season and it has dropped five straight (2-3 ATS) on the road, including the first two games of this series by eight and three points. Los Angeles is 36-7 inside Staples Center, but just 17-24-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by more than eight ppg (103.3-94.9). The Thunder haven’t been in the playoffs since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years. The Lakers had won 14 of 15 (6-9 ATS) in this rivalry prior to dropping the last two games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has cashed in three straight and five of the last six clashes, including two of the last three in Los Angeles. The Thunder are on several positive ATS runs, including 4-1 overall, 10-2 after two days off, 19-7 on the road against teams with winning home records, 10-4 as an underdog, 14-6 as a road ‘dog, 21-9 against winning teams and 38-17-1 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is on several negative ATS slides, including 1-6 overall, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-4 after a non-cover, 2-5-1 after two days off, 4-11 on Tuesday and 1-6 against winning teams. Oklahoma City is on “over” streaks of 10-4 overall, 7-2 on the road, 12-3-1 on Tuesday, 5-2 as a road ‘dog, 20-7 after a straight-up win and 5-2 against Western Conference teams. The Lakers have topped the total in four of five after a non-cover, but they’re otherwise on “under” runs of 7-1 at home, 18-8 against Western Conference teams, 31-15 after a straight-up loss, 20-6 as a playoff favorite, 23-8 against Northwest Division teams, 7-1 as a home favorite and 13-3 at home against teams with winning road marks. In this series, the “under” has cashed in four of the last five meetings in Hollywood, with the first two contests of this playoff series easily staying low.


ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Philadelphia (11-8) at San Francisco (11-8)

Fresh off a dominating effort in his last start at Atlanta, the ageless Jamie Moyer (2-1, 5.00 ERA) hits the road for the third time in four games this season when he leads the Phillies against Todd Wellemeyer (0-3, 8.16) and the Giants in the middle game of a three-game series at AT&T Park. San Francisco became the first team this season to rough up Phillies ace Roy Halladay, scoring five runs in six innings against the right-hander en route to Monday’s 5-1 series-opening victory. The Giants have followed up a four-game losing skid (all on the road) by winning four of five (all at home. Bruce Bochy’s bunch has won 11 of 14 at AT&T Park going back to last season.
Philadelphia, which is in the midst of a nine-game road trip, has dropped three of its last four, and since starting the season 8-2 (including 5-1 on the road), the Phillies have lost six of their last nine games. However, the two-time defending N.L. champs remain on positive runs 37-19 versus the N.L. West, 9-4 against right-handed starters and 5-2 on Tuesday. The Giants edged Philly in the season series last year, winning four of seven meetings, and they’re 7-3 in the last 10 series clashes, including 6-1 in the last seven at AT&T Park. Moyer toyed with the Braves on Tuesday, scattering four hits, two walks and two unearned runs in six innings, leading Philadelphia to an 8-3 victory. Moyer has pitched exactly six innings in all three of his starts this season, and the 47-year-old has 11 strikeouts against just four walks in 18 innings. Dating to last season, the Phillies have won seven of Moyer’s last nine road starts, but they’re still 2-6 in his last eight outings overall. Moyer is 4-6 with a 3.31 ERA in 11 career starts against the Giants, but 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in two games in San Francisco. He last faced the Giants in 2008, giving up six runs in four innings of an 8-2 road loss. Wellemeyer’s first season in San Francisco hasn’t gotten off to a very good start, as the right-hander has allowed 13 runs on 13 hits (five home runs) and 11 walks in 14 1/3 innings. On Wednesday, he held the Padres to two runs in four innings, but still lost 5-2 in San Diego. In his first home start, Wellemeyer gave up four runs in 6 1/3 innings of a 7-2 loss to the Braves. Going back to last July when he was pitching for the Cardinals, Wellemeyer has gotten out of the fifth inning just twice in his last seven starts, giving up four runs or more in six of those seven games. Over this seven-start stretch, Wellemeyer’s teams are 1-6 and he has a 6.68 ERA, and he’s allowed 11 home runs in 32 1/3 innings. Wellemeyer is also 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in eight career games against the Phillies, and his teams have lost all four of his starts against Philadelphia by a combined score of 41-12. Philadelphia is on a slew of “over” runs, including 30-12-2 overall, 21-10 on the road, 5-2 against the N.L. West and 17-8 against right-handed starters, but the under is 10-4-1 in the Phillies’ last 15 Tuesday contests and 5-2 in Moyer’s last seven road outings. Conversely, the Giants have stayed low in eight straight games overall, and five straight games at home. Finally, six of the last seven clashes between these teams have stayed under the posted total.


ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Minnesota (13-6) at Detroit (11-9)

The top two teams in the A.L. Central hook up for the first time since the Twins won a one-game playoff for the division title last October, as red-hot Francisco Liriano (2-0, 1.29) takes the mound for the visitors opposite Justin Verlander (1-1, 6.95) in the opener of a three-game series at Comerica Park. Minnesota began a nine-game A.L. Central road trip by taking two of three in Kansas City over the weekend, winning the first two contests before losing 4-3 on Sunday. The Twins haven’t lost consecutive games all season, and they’re 13-5 overall and 7-2 on the highway since losing at the Angels on Opening Day. Additionally, Ron Gardenhire’s team is on surges of 41-20 in divisional contests, 19-7 in series openers, 30-12 against right-handed starters and 22-6 on Tuesday, though the Twins have lost four of five after a day off. Detroit jumped out to a 4-0 first-inning lead at Texas on Monday but eventually gave it all up and had to rally for an 8-6 victory to earn a split of the four-game series. The Tigers have played just six home games, winning four of them, and they’re 9-3 in their last 12 versus southpaw starters, 21-6 in their last 27 at home against lefties and 5-2 in their last seven divisional games. However, Detroit has dropped four straight series openers. Minnesota staged a furious rally over the final week of the 2009 season to catch the freefalling Tigers in the divisional race. Then in an epic one-game playoff in Minneapolis, the teams went into the 12th inning tied at 4-4 when Detroit scored in the top of the 12th to take the lead, only to see the Twins answer with two in the bottom of the inning to steal the 6-5 victory and the division title. Including the one-game playoff, the Twins went 12-7 against Detroit last year, with the home team winning 13 of the final 18 contests. Liriano has delivered three straight quality starts to begin 2010, and is coming off two outstanding performances at home, leading the Twins to shutout wins over the Red Sox (8-0) and Indians (6-0). In the two victories, Liriano allowed just 10 hits and four walks while striking out 14 in 15 scoreless innings. His only road effort so far came at Chicago on April 9, and he gave up three runs on four hits and five walks in six innings, failing to get a decision in his team’s 4-3 win. The Twins are 3-0 with Liriano on the hill this season after losing six of his final seven starts of 2009. Also, Minnesota is just 1-5 in Liriano’s last six road starts, but 4-1 in his last five on Tuesday and 5-0 in his last five when he comes off five days of rest. For his career, the 26-year-old is just 12-14 with a 5.17 ERA on the road compared with 14-8 with a 2.77 ERA at home. Liriano has faced the Tigers 11 times (seven starts), going 3-1 with a 4.56 ERA, including 1-1 with a 5.75 ERA in five games (three starts) in Motown. In his last three starts against Detroit (two last year), he’s given up seven runs in 21 1/3 innings (2.95 ERA), walking six and whiffing 26. In fact, Liriano has a career 64-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio versus the Tigers.
Verlander is coming off Thursday’s 5-4 victory at the Angels, though he wasn’t particularly sharp as he surrendered all four runs on six hits and four walks in five innings. The hard-throwing right-hander has lasted just five innings in three of his first four starts, but Detroit won all three games. In fact, with Verlander pitching, the Tigers are on positive runs of 6-1 overall, 44-20 at home, 5-0 versus A.L. Central rivals and 5-1 on Tuesday. Verlander’s worst start of 2010 came in his only home game to date, and he got rocked for six runs in five innings against the Indians, but his offense bailed him out, rallying for a 9-8 victory. Still, he’s 35-17 with a 3.82 ERA in his career at home. Against the Twins, he’s 5-6 with a 4.28 ERA in 14 starts, including 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA in four contests last year. Detroit has lost seven of Verlander’s last 10 starts against Minnesota. Minnesota is on “over” runs of 12-5-2 versus A.L. Central foes and 5-2-1 against right-handed starters, but it also carries “under” trends of 13-6-2 in series openers, 4-0 against winning teams, 3-0-2 following an off day, 4-0 with Liriano on the mound and 5-0-1 with Liriano facing divisional rivals. Meanwhile, Detroit is on “over” stretches of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 versus A.L. Central foes, 4-0 on Tuesday, and with Verlander on the bump the “over” is on surges of 7-1-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 5-0-1 versus divisional rivals and 8-0 on Tuesday. The over was 3-0-1 in the final four Twins-Tigers battles last year, and the over is also 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes in Detroit and 4-0-1 in Verlander’s last five starts against Minnesota.


ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
 
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pro tipter

27.04.2010 Europe Champions League Lyon - Bayern Munich Lyon +0
27.04.2010 England League Two Darlington - Notts County Notts County
 
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GE3 ERZGEBIRGE AUE - VEGEN:Bet on ERZGEBIRGE AUE@1,65

SW2 SUNDSVALL - JONKOPINGS SODRA:Bet on SUNDSVALL@1,7
 
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win/loss: 7-3-1, net profit: +5.00 units, yield: 42%

champions league
lyon - bayern, over 2.5 goals, 1 unit, 2.02 @ pinnacle
 
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Foxsheets 4/27

StatFox Super Situations


Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (DETROIT) with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL)
73-40 since 1997. ( 64.6% | 34.8 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )


TAMPA BAY is 75-21 (+35.3 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: TAMPA BAY (5.6) , OPPONENT (3.8)


Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
87-44 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.4% | 38.6 units )
17-9 this year. ( 65.4% | 7.1 units )


Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (DALLAS) after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins
464-183 since 1997. ( 71.7% | 130.4 units )
44-8 this year. ( 84.6% | 32.9 units )


Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points after going over the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games
96-50 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.8% | 41.0 units )
11-8 this year. ( 57.9% | 2.2 units )
 
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Dunkel NBA

Today's NBA Picks
Miami at Boston

The Celtics look to close out the series and take advantage of Miami's 0-4 ATS record in its last 4 games as an underdog. Boston is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, APRIL 27
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST
Game 529-530: Chicago at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 119.664; Cleveland 125.150
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 12; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+12); Under
Game 531-532: Miami at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 115.228; Boston 125.766
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 10 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 6; 188
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-6); Under
Game 533-534: San Antonio at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.780; Dallas 128.306
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5; 193
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5); Under
Game 535-536: Oklahoma City at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 116.556; LA Lakers 126.375
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 10; 190
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-6); Under
 
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Dunkel MLB

Today's MLB Picks
Minnesota at Detroit

The Twins look to build on their 8-2 record in Francisco Liriano's last 10 starts with the total set at 7 to 8 1/2 runs. Minnesota is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, APRIL 27
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST
Game 901-902: LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haeger) 14.326; NY Mets (Perez) 15.403
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-175); Over
Game 903-904: San Diego at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Garland) 16.657; Florida (Sanchez) 15.738
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+115); Over
Game 905-906: Washington at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 14.972; Cubs (Gorzelanny) 16.148
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-165); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-165); N/A
Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.469; Houston (Norris) 16.107
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-120); Over
Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.840; Milwaukee (Wolf) 13.630
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-250); 9
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+210); Over
Game 911-912: Atlanta at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 14.062; St. Louis (Carpenter) 15.242
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-180); Under
Game 913-914: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Jackson) 15.362; Colorado (Jimenez) 16.548
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-200); Under
Game 915-916: Philadelphia at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.489; San Francisco (Wellemeyer) 14.845
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-115); Under
Game 917-918: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Buchholz) 14.488; Toronto (Marcum) 15.789
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-105); Over
Game 919-920: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 16.050; Detroit (Verlander) 15.430
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Detroit (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under
Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 14.853; Baltimore (Millwood) 15.101
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Over
Game 923-924: Oakland at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Sheets) 16.584; Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.306
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+155); Under
Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Buehrle) 15.100; Texas (Wilson) 14.884
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Under
Game 927-928: Seattle at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Snell) 14.865; Kansas City (Greinke) 16.584
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-180); Under
Game 929-930: Cleveland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Talbot) 15.745; LA Angels (Saunders) 15.066
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Over
Game 931-932: LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kuroda) 14.539; NY Mets (Santana) 16.327
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
 

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